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    Storm Prediction Center
    SPC Forecast Products
    • No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 20 21:49:01 UTC 2025.
    • No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 20 21:49:01 UTC 2025.
    • SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      Day 1 Outlook Image
      Day 1 Convective Outlook  
      NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
      0245 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
      
      Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
      
      ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
      
      ...SUMMARY...
      No severe threat is expected today or tonight across the continental
      U.S.
      
      No change is made to this outlook from the previous outlook.
      
      ..Broyles.. 10/20/2025
      
      .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025/
      
      ...Synopsis and Discussion...
      Current satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
      traversing the CONUS: a sharp, well-defined wave moving across the
      Northeast and a lower-amplitude, more broad wave progressing through
      the northern High Plains/northern Plains. The majority of the CONUS
      is characterized by dry and stable conditions as high pressure
      follows in the wake of a strong cold front associated with the
      Northeast shortwave trough. The only exception is across New England
      and far southern FL, which remain ahead of the cold front. The cold
      front is expected to continue eastward/northeastward through New
      England today, while becoming increasingly occluded as the
      associated surface low tracks more northerly. A band of showers is
      ongoing across New England now, but scant buoyancy across the region
      has kept storms shallow thus far. A few instances of lightning are
      still possible within this band as well as a few stronger,
      convective augmented gusts. However, the overall severe probability
      should remain too low to introduce an outlook area. A few isolated
      thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front in south FL as well,
      but weak shear should preclude any severe threat.
      
      Two other areas could see isolated thunderstorms this
      afternoon/evening and overnight, both associated with the western
      shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains into the Upper
      Midwest. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this
      afternoon/evening across southeast MT and adjacent northeast WY and
      western SD amid strong forcing for ascent and cooling mid-level
      temperatures. Aa instance or two of small hail is possible as well.
      Farther southeast, a few thunderstorms are possible overnight into
      early tomorrow morning from the Arklatex into northwest MS as the
      cold front associated with this shortwave moves through. These
      storms should be post-frontal with very limited severe potential.
      
      
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    • SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
      Day 3 Outlook Image
      Day 3 Convective Outlook  
      NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
      0203 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
      
      Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
      
      ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
      
      ...SUMMARY...
      Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday.
      
      ...Synopsis...
      A deep upper low will remain dominant across the northeast states on
      Wednesday, while a shortwave trough moves across southern CA and
      into the desert southwest.  Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
      beneath the cold upper low over parts of New England, and along the
      immediate leeward shores of the lower Great Lakes.  No severe storms
      are anticipated.
      
      Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible in a plume of
      mid-level moisture ahead of the western trough - mainly from
      southern UT into parts of CO/NM.  Again, no severe storms are
      currently expected.
      
      ..Hart.. 10/20/2025
      
      
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    • SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
      Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
      Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
      NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
      0245 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
      
      Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
      
      ...Southeast Piedmont...
      Dry southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front is expected
      across portions in the Piedmont region of the VA, Carolinas and
      northern GA Tuesday. Relative humidity as low as 20% amid dry fuels
      will align, but limiting factor will continue to wind speeds,
      struggling to reach 15 mph by Tuesday afternoon. Nonetheless, a
      locally elevated fire weather threat will exist across the region.
      
      ...Central and Southern Plains...
      Dry, post-frontal flow is still expected to support an elevated fire
      potential across north-central TX Tuesday. Northeast winds of around
      15 mph, along with relative humidity dropping to 15% in some areas
      will align with dry fuels (ERCs near the 90th percentile) to promote
      elevated fire weather conditions across north-central TX, where
      Elevated highlights remain. Farther north, enhanced north/northwest
      winds and low relative humidity behind the cold front are likely
      across portions of the Central Plains. However, a less receptive
      fuelscape should mitigate significant fire potential in this region.
      
      ..Williams.. 10/20/2025
      
      .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025/
      
      ...Synopsis...
      Post frontal northeasterly breezes will overlap relative humidity
      reductions to around 20 percent across portions of north-central
      Texas. Though this is occurring on the cool side of the front,
      temperatures will still remain fairly warm, with fuels exceeding the
      75th percentile for dryness given below normal rainfall and ongoing
      drought conditions. An Elevated area was maintained with this
      outlook to cover potential for some increased fire potential.
      
      ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
      
      
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