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    Storm Prediction Center
    SPC Forecast Products
    • No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 7 08:51:02 UTC 2025.
    • No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 7 08:51:02 UTC 2025.
    • SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      Day 1 Outlook Image
      Day 1 Convective Outlook  
      NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
      1141 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
      
      Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
      
      ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FL
      PENINSULA...
      
      ...SUMMARY...
      Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible,
      mainly across central Florida during the late afternoon and evening.
      
      ...FL Peninsula...
      Abundant convective development is expected later this morning
      across the north-central to northeast Gulf along a largely
      west/east-oriented quasi-stationary front. Downstream
      cloudiness/rain along/north of the front will support pronounced
      differential boundary-layer heating across it, from central to north
      FL. With most guidance indicating potential for an MCV to evolve
      from the morning convection, within the broadly cyclonic mid-level
      flow regime across the Southeast, it is plausible that convection
      may strengthen along the baroclinic zone towards peak heating. Weak
      mid-level lapse rates will remain a key limiting factor to
      convective intensity. But adequate deep-layer shear will exist for
      transient mid-level rotation. With a warm boundary layer anticipated
      across central to south FL, a few strong gusts capable of localized
      damaging winds are possible. While the 00Z NAM appears to be an
      aggressive outlier with stronger low-level mass response, expected
      modest low-level SRH may be sufficient for a brief tornado or two.
      
      ..Grams/Thornton.. 12/07/2025
      
      
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    • SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
      Day 2 Outlook Image
      Day 2 Convective Outlook  
      NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
      1100 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
      
      Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
      
      ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
      
      ...SUMMARY...
      Aside from the possibility of a couple weak thunderstorms near and,
      perhaps, inland of southern Florida coastal areas, the risk for
      thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday
      through Monday night.
      
      ...Synopsis...
      The center of a fairly prominent, but relatively compact mid-level
      vortex is likely to continue redeveloping east-southeast of southern
      Hudson/James Bay, into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador
      vicinity during this period.  However, models indicate that
      large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained east of the
      Rockies through the western Atlantic, downstream of persistent broad
      ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into U.S
      Intermountain West.
      
      One notable short wave perturbation embedded within the troughing is
      forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Appalachians,
      across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but this may
      contribute to suppression of subtropical ridging as far south as the
      Caribbean and Bahamas.  In lower levels, an associated reinforcing
      intrusion of cooler/drier air appears likely to contribute to the
      southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the
      remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.  
      
      At the same time, it appears that another notable short wave
      perturbation, progressing through the crest of upstream ridge, will
      provide support for surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian
      and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night.  This likely will be
      accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high
      plains, but dry, stable conditions will be maintained there and
      across much of the remainder of the U.S.
      
      ...Southern Florida/Keys...
      Latest model output remains varied concerning potential for
      thunderstorm development along/ahead of the southward advancing
      front.  Mid/upper support appears weak, with potential for
      appreciable destabilization, particularly inland of coastal areas,
      limited as well.
      
      ..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
      
      
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    • SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
      Day 3 Outlook Image
      Day 3 Convective Outlook  
      NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
      0114 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
      
      Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
      
      ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
      
      ...SUMMARY...
      The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
      Tuesday through Tuesday night.
      
      ...Discussion...
      Models continue to indicate little substantive change to the
      large-scale mid/upper flow impacting the U.S. through this period. 
      Broad ridging is likely to persist across the eastern mid-latitude
      Pacific into the U.S. Intermountain West and Rockies, with
      downstream troughing east of the Rockies through the Atlantic
      Seaboard and western Atlantic.  The troughing is likely to be
      reinforced by another significant short wave perturbation, digging
      within northwesterly flow to the lee of the crest of the ridge.  
      
      It appears that this will be accompanied by a rapidly migrating
      cyclone across the northern Great Plains through much of the upper
      Great Lakes region by late tonight.  In the wake of this feature,
      models indicate an increasingly significant intrusion of cold air
      will begin to surge southward into parts of the northern Great
      Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, preceded by strengthening flow
      veering to an increasing westerly component as far south as the Gulf
      coast vicinity.
      
      Even as the Gulf boundary layer begins to modify to the north of a
      stalling and weakening front, south of the Florida Peninsula through
      the southern Gulf Basin, appreciable inland moisture is unlikely
      through this period and beyond.
      
      ..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
      
      
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